On the right, look right, starting left – the anchoring effect

I’m not always making errors; despite whatever picture these articles may appear to paint. But I am open about them, as I genuinely believe that’s the only way to prevent their re-occurrence. That being said, the latest slip came just last week. While deployed, we have air conditioning carts to keep the aircraft cool before we start engines. As it was being moved to our other aircraft, my captain (in the left-hand seat) was telling me to check out on the right that the cart was clear of the right engine, which I confirmed. As per our procedures, he then went ahead with the engine start for the left engine. Subconsciously I was still looking out to the right, so when he went through the start procedure and the right propellor wasn’t turning, I called no rotation. The response of ‘that’ll be because that’s the right engine and we’re starting the left’ quickly snapped my eyes across the cockpit, to the already well-rotating left propellor. On reflection, I realise that there may have been an element of anchoring on the instruction of checking we were clear on the right, which doesn’t normally happen to that extent when starting the left engine.

Anchoring is a form of cognitive bias where we focus on the first given piece of information, which influences our decision making. This is seen all around us on a daily basis, and quite often we find ourselves succumbing to its effect without even realising it.

Take buying a used car as a great example of this effect. We go to a used car showroom with our hearts set on picking up an Audi Q4 e-tron (currently top on my list of electric SUVs for our next car upgrade). Brand new these cars’ base models are worth around £52k. At the used-approved Audi dealer, there’s a one-year-old car, with not many miles, listed at £25k. It isn’t even the base model, so already we’re feeling like we’re getting a deal. We enter negotiations with the car salesperson, and they somewhat reluctantly agree to sell it to us for £21k (we’re great negotiators). To us, we’ve just got a fantastic deal as we’ve picked up a £52k car, which we believe to be worth £25k currently, for £21k. However, in reality, the garage is rubbing their hands together as they bought that car last week for £15k as part of a part-exchange. We anchored on the first bits of information (£25k marked price) and our subsequent decision making was based on our perception that anything less is a great deal, without true appreciation of the car’s actual value.

Whilst me looking right for a left-hand engine start isn’t a true example of anchoring, it illustrates the idea that when we are told one thing, our minds focus in on that reality and even though we know the left engine is started first, we still stare at the right engine expecting to see a rotating propellor! Subsequent decision making is influenced by the first value presented to us.

In 1974, two psychologists, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, first explored this idea of anchoring. They set up two research groups, both given the same mathematical problem but framed differently, and gave the participants 5 seconds to answer. One group were given 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1, and the other group given 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8. With such a short time to calculate, the groups estimated based on the first couple of calculations made in their heads. For the group who started with 8 x 7, the mean estimate was 2,520, whereas for the 1 x 2 starting group, the mean estimate was 512 (the answer is actually 40,320 in case this comes up in a pub quiz anywhere). This illustrated this concept of anchoring, that we base our subsequent decisions on the first piece of information given. Many other studies have illustrated the same effect in a whole host of environments, but this cognitive bias has remained throughout.

Now that we know the anchoring effect is an encoded bias within our brains, how can we be aware of this to help prevent us falling victim to it when making key decisions? As there has been much research into the effect itself, there has also been some into the factors that influence our susceptibility to it. One review around factors influencing the strength of the anchoring effect has seen that a positive mood can reduce or even go as far as eradicating the bias (Englich & Soder, 2009). Some other research has indicated that the effect is enhanced in extreme cases, where the initial value presented to us is extreme our subsequent decision making is influenced to an even greater extent (Furnham & Boo, 2011) . The main issue with anchoring, as with any cognitive bias, is the fact that it operates subconsciously within our minds.

Understanding the anchoring effect and its aggravating factors is the first step of combating the bias. There will be times when this isn’t at the forefront of our minds, and we find ourselves being influenced by overpriced cars or inaccurate starting information. A good way to proactively mitigate the effects of anchoring is to adopt a positive mood when in the decision-making process and apply red teaming practice where able. This gives us more time to look at the weaknesses of a proposed value or piece of information and take longer to come to a decision. This isn’t always practical, as we may be operating in time sensitive environments, but just a simple nod to what may be influencing our decision making could stop us from making mistakes or spending more than we really need to.